Election Musings and Predictions [politics]  

Well, we finally have a Democratic candidate for the Presidency. Despite the long and sometimes frustrating process, I thought it was really good overall. Obama has been vetted, and despite the sometimes nasty attacks from Clinton, we're all better off for her tactics....this is politics, after all, and it's rarely a love fest. I can guarantee Obama will see worse from the Republicans, and now he and his staff have a little experience dealing with it. Before things get too crazy, and we're in this little political lull, so to speak, I wanted to reflect on some of the past drama, pass on some of my predictions, express some of my fears, and lay out some of my ideas on what we have to look forward to in the upcoming few months. This might be kinda long....

I laughed at the idea of a Democratic "split" that bloggers and news media were predicting....if you remember, pundits said some pretty vicious things about McCain, and even folks like Rush and Ann Coulter swore they wouldn't vote for him. That didn't last long, did it? Now Clinton has thrown her full support behind Obama and the Republican wet dream of her running as a 3rd party candidate can officially be forgotten. All this talk of Clinton's supporters voting for McCain was all bollocks, and of course hardcore Republicans and Democrats will come back around to their candidates. The issue for Republicans is that there are very few hardcore members left.

I'll start with a prediction. Obama will be our next President. Also, Democrats will control both the House and the Senate. It's going to be a rout. Just look at what happened in my home state of Mississippi. Not a good sign for the Republicans. If the Dems are smart and put up fairly conservative Democrats in these Republican strongholds, they could clean house. And I think they will. Under Howard Dean's leadership, they've created a massive support structure based on bottom up funding from the people instead of special interest groups and lobbyists. It was a smart move for Obama to keep Dean running the show, and it's going to payoff massively in November.

So what can the Republicans do? Their candidate is going to get skewered for his massive flip flopping on issues ranging from torture to wiretapping to supporting the troops. He won't be able to stand up to Obama in a debate, that much is crystal clear. I see two strategies for them, and I guarantee both will be ugly.


First is the Swift Boat operation, which has recently swung into action (or at least the publisher of their books has). This is going to be nasty, but I think Obama can handle it and turn it back on the Republicans. He's got charisma, and has generally shown that he's not afraid to take on such accusations directly.

The far worse strategy, and one that's already started to be used (tho with very little coverage so far), is the systematic disenfranchisement of as many Americans as possible, using whatever means possible. Rest assured, the Republicans will try to prevent as many people from voting as they possibly can. I think this is going to be the biggest story of the election, and I hope Obama and his camp are ready for it.

This is going to be done several ways. The legal way has already been put to use in Arizona, Indiana, Georgia, and Michigan. It's called a Voter ID law and its ultimate purpose is to disenfranchise minorities, poor people, the elderly, and young adults. Guess which way most of those people vote? There has been little to no credible evidence of voter fraud, yet Republicans are pushing these laws through State government with no regard for the very real collateral damage of legal American voters. This is only going to get worse, and I'll bet my bottom dollar that this will be a core Republican strategy for the election.

Let's not forget typical illegal voter intimidation strategies that have been well documented all over the South. With a black man running for President, it will probably be twice as bad, but I bet Obama will take it much more seriously than others in the past.

Now, despite these strategies, I'm predicting a Democratic blowout. Why? Because the Democrats have been registering record numbers of voters. Voter turnout, in general, is like nothing I've ever seen, breaking records that have stood for 40+ years. And here's the kicker: a majority of them are Democrats. This bodes well for the Dems, and once people start catching Obamamania, it's going to get crazy.


It's certainly going to be a historic election, and I'm terribly excited to see the events unfold. I'm following it from London, but luckily in this day and age I can watch every speech, hear all the pundits, and read all the articles with just a few clicks. Talk about empowering the voter! I think it's going to be a watershed election for the United States of America, I still have faith that we'll do what's best for our country.